Jay Dhahan, our VP of Originations in Florida, provides a critical look at the current landscape. His assessment moves beyond the national headlines to focus on the specific dynamics driving the Sunshine State.
The Florida real estate market in 2026 is defined by recalibration, not collapse.
National transaction volume remains below the peaks of 2021 and 2022. Elevated interest rates, tighter underwriting standards, and more disciplined capital markets have reduced speculative activity. However, Florida continues to demonstrate structural strength driven by population migration, business relocation, and long-term housing demand.
From my seat as a Florida-based originations manager, capital has not disappeared. It has become selective.
Mortgage rates remain materially higher than the decade prior to 2022. That shift has impacted affordability, refinancing activity, and investor yield thresholds.
Higher rates have done three important things:
This environment favors strong balance sheets, conservative leverage, and long-term holding strategies.
Markets are forward-looking. As inflation stabilizes and Federal Reserve policy expectations evolve, capital markets begin pricing in future normalization before official policy shifts occur.
Florida continues to rank among the top states for net migration. Domestic relocations, international inflows, and corporate expansion all contribute to sustained housing demand.
Long-term population growth supports:
Demographics drive real estate performance over time. Florida’s demographic profile remains favorable relative to many other U.S. markets.
The strongest opportunities I am seeing include:
This is not a momentum-driven market. It is an execution-driven market.
Investors who prioritize cash flow, location quality, and conservative underwriting assumptions are positioned to outperform in this cycle.
Florida remains a durable long-term market. Discipline determines outcomes.
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